The Aakhya G20 Special | A Prelude to the G20

This week, we take a break from regular programming to keep you posted on all that is happening with the G20.

At long last, the main G20 summit is here. Heads of state from key nations across the world have poured into the national capital. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has met bilaterally with three of them - President Joe Biden of the United States of America, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Mauritius Prime Minister Kumar Jugnauth. 12 more bilateral meetings shall follow. The next two days may well change the trajectory of the world.

This is a culmination of many months of intense negotiation by multiple task groups on diverse topics. It is the first international event of this stature that India has ever hosted, and it has taken to the event with frenetic energy. Its scale has been unprecedented. Cities across the country - tier II and III cities included - have hosted over a lakh delegates, showcasing the true extent of India’s diversity to the world. All of this shall culminate in the summit scheduled for the next two days.

India’s energy has infected the ensuing negotiations as well. It has set an ambitious agenda for itself, pursuing goals in multiple domains, ranging from technology access, to sustainability, to equity. It does so in an ever-darkening geopolitical environment, however, attempting to balance interests that are fundamentally opposed. With much work to still go, this summit shall be a profound test of the country’s diplomatic mettle.

The geopolitical backdrop

It is in a strained international landscape that India took up the G20 presidency. The world is the most polarised it has been in decades. The war in Ukraine has left a deep, festering gash in global relations. The Western world has been steadfast in condemning Russia for the invasion. Meanwhile, China has upset many of its neighbors, India included, who are increasingly looking for ways to counter its titanic power. Ties between the United States and China, too, have nosedived, and the two are now openly confrontational. Two antagonistic coalitions have appeared within the G20 - a Western block, led by the United States, and a Russia-China block. From the very beginning, India has been navigating choppy waters.

This sense of disquiet has spilled into the main G20 summit. Both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have decided to skip the summit. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Premier Li Qiang, respectively, shall appear in their stead. This presents an immediate obstacle to the event’s success.

The biggest challenge to India’s presidency - and this may yet be an impossible challenge - is to put together a ‘compromise’ document that all twenty members agree upon. Doing so, however, is an uphill task, particularly in the absence of the Russian and Chinese heads of state. There is currently consensus on all issues other than the Ukraine conflict. The Western bloc is adamant that Russian belligerence be condemned, which Russia and China refuse. India’s task shall be to somehow find language that fits everyone’s purposes. Last year, Indonesia successfully navigated a similar bind to produce a joint communique that all parties agreed on. But there is no guarantee that India shall succeed.

If it fails, India may share a Chair’s summary of the summit’s proceedings, showing consensus on most issues. However, this would mark the first G20 summit without a complete consensus emerging. On the other hand, if it succeeds, India shall cement its legacy as a great global balancer in fractious times.

What to expect

Before this acrimonious, as its core message, India stresses on the unity of mankind. The summit’s theme draws from the idea of ‘vasudhaiva kutumbakam,’ that the world is one family. The Government’s own transcription of the phrase is “One World. One Family. One Future” -  the theme of the summit. The summit’s three sessions shall be titled “One World”, “One Family” and “One Future” respectively.

As themes go, of course, it is broadly worded. Much can come under its ambit. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s op-ed, published on Thursday, sketches its contours a little further. He writes:

As One Earth, we are coming together to nurture our planet. As One Family, we support each other in the pursuit of growth. And we move together towards a shared future - One Future - which is an undeniable truth in these interconnected times.

This is instructive. It indicates that three ideas will be stressed on as part of the summit. The first is the need to combat climate change. The second is the need to aid the growth of, presumably, the developing world. The third is the need for cross-border cooperation to take on global challenges.

The remainder of the op-ed details his vision as he helms India’s G20 Presidency, and notes India’s many achievements on this front. It likely spells out India’s core positions heading into the summit, and flagposts the issues India wishes to focus on. Its contents, therefore, deserve detailed consideration.

The case for climate leadership

At least in part, it appears, India shall use the summit to make its case as a global leader in climate action. To the Prime Minister, living in harmony with nature is part of India’s civilisational ethos. He cites many recent initiatives of the Indian Government, from setting up an alliance on solar energy, to funding innovation in green Hydrogen, to experimenting with nudges under the LiFE program, arguing that India continues to live up to this ethos. It is rumoured that India will also announce a bio-fuels alliance at the summit. These initiatives, to Mr. Modi, showcase India’s fresh approach to the problem - not one of telling others what not to do, but of offering constructive suggestions on what may be done.

As achievements of India’s G20 presidency, the Prime Minister highlights two key outcome documents. The first, concluded at Varanasi, is the G20 2023 Action Plan to Accelerate Progress on the SDGs - which aims to give fresh momentum to the world’s stunted progress on meeting its Sustainable Development Goals for the year 2030. The second, from Chennai, were the High Level Principles on a Sustainable and Climate Resilient Blue Economy - which suggest steps for the management and sustainable harnessing of oceans.

While it advocates for greater climate action, however, India will probably also press developed nations on a long articulated demand from developing countries: that of low-cost technology transfers and climate finance, to help developing countries manage the climate transition. India has steadfastly held that developed countries must bear a greater share of the brunt of climate change mitigation, given their developmental head start. Climate finance and technology transfer was central to its agenda at the COP 27. Mr. Modi’s op-ed echoes this demand, as he noted that climate action must be a pursuit complementary to development.

Championing the aspirations of the Global South

The platform of the G20, India hopes, shall position it as the Global North’s bridge to the Global South. In this, it is locked in a tussle with China - a contest that has surfaced repeatedly since the days of Nehru and Mao. Earlier this year, the G7 threw in its lot with India. In May, the Japanese Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, invited Prime Minister Modi to Hiroshima for the meeting of the G7. To analysts, Mr. Modi represented the interests of the ‘G11’ - those G20 countries that were not part of the G7, other than Russia and China. The mantle was claimed by Mr. Modi himself, when he referred to himself as the representative of the positions and perspectives of the Global South.

India’s case to the developing world is that it shall help them find a voice in global decision-making. The Prime Minister calls this a shift from a ‘GDP-centric view of the world’ to a ‘human-centric’ one. He termed the Voice of the Global South Summit, held in January this year, as one of the foremost initiatives of India’s G20 presidency. The virtual summit saw participation from over 125 countries, and was pitched as an exercise in gathering the perspectives of those countries that did not have a voice in the G20.

Africa is one of the key theaters in which the competition for the Global South is playing out. China is considered dominant in the continent. Its economic might dwarfs any competition for influence in Africa, and through a bevy of big-ticket investments, it has gathered stakes in many strategic sectors. India, however, is forging its own linkages with the continent. As a key move, India has pitched - and reportedly secured - G20 membership for the African Union, making the 55-country collective the grouping’s 21st member.

The G20 summit will see many discussions that are critical to the developing world. For instance, India may advocate for the cause of countries struggling with debt repayment, such as Sri Lanka, seeking greater communication and accelerated debt restructuring. India may also push for greater financial assistance to developing countries, and it is rumoured that the United States may use the forum to announce an increase in the lending power of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund by $200 billion.

Pitching Indian digital infrastructure

The G20 shall serve as a platform for India to evangelise its pioneering digital public infrastructure. To the Prime Minister, the effect of technology has hitherto been skewed towards those who can access it. To truly leverage its potential, technology must be made accessible. This, Mr. Modi argues, is where India is leading the way.

He pitches India’s pioneering digital public infrastructure as ‘simple, scalable and sustainable solutions’, the impact of which has been recognised globally. Crediting them with making India the world’s fastest growing major economy, he positions the G20 as a forum through which India shall assist other developing countries build and scale their own digital infrastructure. Many of India’s projects, from the UPI to e-Sanjeevani, have been showcased at the summit venue.

This push has long been in the making. In what few thought was possible when India’s presidency began, in August, the G20 Digital Economy Ministers meeting ended with a consensus on the importance of digital public infrastructure. This consensus was the product of tireless work by Indian officials. Many negotiators began the engagement with no experience or understanding of such infrastructure. India had to showcase their importance, and prove that these would be instrumental in achieving digital and economic inclusion. By the end, all delegates endorsed such infrastructure, and even agreed on a “voluntary and suggested” framework on how digital public infrastructure can be developed and deployed.

What delegates learned was relayed back to their home countries. This piqued curiosity across many countries. Transport agencies in London and Paris, for instance, are pondering over how they can incorporate such infrastructure in their systems.

A display of state capacity

There are many other themes that the Prime Minister touches on, which may dominate discussion in the coming days. India may continue its push for the global acceptance of millets. The empowerment of women may receive attention, including, in particular, the gender gap in access to technology. Delegates may discuss the need to ensure skill recognition across borders.

As much as the G20 is a forum for multilateral discussion, however, it is also a showcase of India’s growing state capacity - for audiences both domestic and foreign. As he turns to conclude his op-ed, Mr. Modi says “Today, accomplishing things at scale is a quality that is associated with India.” He notes the stunning scale at which this year’s G20 was conducted. More than 200 meetings were conducted in 60 cities across India - making it the most geographically expansive G20 year ever. Its scale and grandeur is a demonstration of the growing vigour of the Indian state. As Mr. Modi said in a recent interview to PTI, “This capacity and confidence will also get channelized into various other constructive endeavours that will push progress and prosperity.”

This celebration of India’s state capacity is separate from it merely having power. By the sheer weight of its population, India will always wield a degree of influence on the world. The G20 Presidency, however, is not a statement of India’s demographic might, but of its capability. As Mr. Modi told PTI, India is transitioning from merely being seen as a large market to being seen as a part of the solution for global challenges.

This is the implicit theme of this G20. By showcasing its competence - in international leadership, in demonstrating outcomes, and in even pulling off a grand event of global stature - The Indian State is laying claim to being an entity to be reckoned with.

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Additional Links:

• Prime Minister Modi’s editorial at the eve of the G20.

• Ananth Krishnan writes on how Japan brokered a partnership between the G7 and India.

• Rudra Chaudhuri details how India forged consensus on Digital Public Infrastructure.

• Vikas Pandey describes India’s challenging task of bringing the G20 together on a joint statement.

• Sameer Saran details the impact of making the G20 a people’s festival.

Today’s edition has been written by Pranav Agarwal, with assistance from Yashvika Malhan and Vrinda Tulsian.