The Aakhya Weekly #100 | The 2024 Election Special
In Focus: The Great Lok Sabha Showdown
[Part of the Election Series by Aakhya Weekly]
By Aakhya Policy Team
For a detailed analysis of the elections, covering key trends, regional variations, a retrospective on NDA 1 and 2, and the impact on various sectors, check out Aakhya India’s General Election 2024 Report.
The 18th Lok Sabha elections in India concluded on June 4th after an extensive two-month-long electoral process, spanning 7 phases and covering 543 parliamentary constituencies. Contrary to exit polls that forecasted a thumping majority of 350 votes for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the actual results painted a far less rosy picture.Â
The BJP's seat count of 240 marked a significant drop from its 2019 total of 303, leaving it short of the majority mark of 272. Consequently, forming a coalition government became necessary, with the BJP relying on support from its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) allies. Among them, the Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) in Bihar and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh, with 12 and 16 seats respectively, joined other regional parties in backing the BJP. Following the election outcome, the NDA coalition reaffirmed Narendra Modi as the Prime Ministerial candidate, with unanimous backing from all allied partners.Â
Meanwhile, the INDIA bloc, a coalition of opposition parties comprising the Indian National Congress (INC), Samajwadi Party (SP), and All India Trinamool Congress (AITC), presented a formidable challenge. Collectively, they secured 232 seats, making it a closely contested electoral battle. The bloc decided against staking a claim to form the government and instead said that it will take ‘appropriate steps at appropriate time’.Â
Simultaneously, results for the assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, and Odisha were also announced. In Andhra Pradesh, the TDP emerged victorious with 135 seats out of 175. The BJP is on track to form the government in Arunachal Pradesh, winning 46 out of 60 seats. Surprisingly, in Odisha, where the incumbent Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal (BJD) had a 24-year tenure, the BJP ended its reign by attaining 78 seats out of 147. In Sikkim, the Sikkim Krantikari Morcha supremo Prem Singh Tamang declared his second term as the chief minister after clinching victory in 31 out of 32 seats.
Stocktaking on Voter Participation
In the mammoth election, a global benchmark was set with a total voter turnout of 64.2 crores. A standout feature of this election was the impressive participation of women voters, who cast nearly half of the total votes at 31.2 crores. In several phases, women's turnout even surpassed that of men, signaling a diminishing gender gap in voter participation. First-time voters also played a notable role, with 1.8 crores casting their ballots for the very first time, alongside 19.47 crores voters aged 20-29. The electorate cast their ballots for 8,360 candidates and 751 parties. Among the contestants, 797 were women, but only 74 secured seats in parliament, a slight decline from 2019 when 78 women were elected. Despite an increase in the number of women candidates over the years, the rise in successful female candidates remains modest.
Despite these noteworthy figures, the voter turnout fell short of the Election Commission’s ambitious goal of 75%. The voter turnout even though world breaking was lower compared to the 2014 and 2019 elections. Analysts attributed this decline to various factors, including the peak summer season, slowdowns at voting booths, voter fatigue, and voter overconfidence in PM Modi’s return to power.
Takeaways From the StatesÂ
The 2024 elections surprised many, as the usual patterns of predictability seemed to tone down. The emergence of the INDIA bloc was a major factor in this shift, altering the dynamics of opposition politics. Spearheaded by the INC and bolstered by a coalition of state parties, including the likes of the SP in Uttar Pradesh, Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, and DMK in Tamil Nadu, the INDIA bloc emerged as a potent force. These regional heavyweights, though fragmented in their appeal, managed to rally significant support, injecting fresh vigor into the opposition camp.Â
Meanwhile, despite its mammoth stature and the ambitious campaign slogan of '400 paar', the BJP had to lean on the support of its allies- TDP and JDU- to fortify its position. State-wise analysis reveals a major setback for the party particularly in Uttar Pradesh, a pivotal contributor to parliamentary representation. Here, the INDIA bloc, led by the SP and INC, emerged as a dominant force, defying expectations. The BJP could manage to win only 33 seats in the state, losing coveted constituencies like Amethi to INC and Faizabad to SP. Despite this setback, the BJP maintained its stronghold with sweeping victories across the Hindi heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and the Union Territory of Delhi.
Down south, for the very first time, BJP was able to open its account in Kerala largely credited to the star appeal of actor Suresh Gopi, marking a pivotal moment for the party. In Odisha, a stronghold of the Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal, the party made substantial strides in both general and assembly elections. The BJP's alliance with Janata Dal (Secular) resulted in a combined win of 19 seats in Karnataka. However, it failed to grab any seats in Punjab, Tamil Nadu, and Manipur, despite garnering an 11.24% vote share in Tamil Nadu.
Traversing the New Political TerrainÂ
The 2024 Lok Sabha Elections heralded the revival of INC and significant influence of regional parties, reshaping India's political landscape. On the other hand, despite retaining power, the BJP experienced a notable decline in both vote share and unilateral authority. Now, as a coalition government led by the BJP prepares to take the helm, all eyes are on how it navigates this new political landscape. Balancing the intricacies of coalition politics presents numerous challenges and opportunities alike. With allies like JDU and TDP in the mix, the BJP must adeptly balance regional aspirations and accommodate diverse voices, a departure from its previous governance style. Moreover, the strengthened opposition adds another layer of complexity, challenging the NDA government to effectively address the nation's concerns while ensuring stability. The coalition government must navigate all these challenges while guiding the nation towards progress and prosperity.
For a detailed analysis of the elections, covering key trends, regional variations, a retrospective on NDA 1 and 2, and the impact on various sectors, check out Aakhya India’s General Election 2024 Report.