The Aakhya Weekly #110 | Neighbourhood in Flux: The Bangladesh Conundrum

Aug 16, 2024

In Focus: Bangladesh Crisis from an Indian Lens

by Sasanka Kanuparthi

Ten days ago today, Bangladesh’s former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled the capital Dhaka. Her political exile manifested itself following weeks-long protests by students and other groups over the issue of an affirmative action quota system for kin of the 1971 war veterans for government jobs. Despite the country’s supreme court overturning the law, and PM Hasina’s landslide victory in the recently concluded national elections, she was ousted on August 5th owing to the escalation of street violence and police action.

Her attempts to crack down on the protesters lasted for weeks leading to several deaths, prompting a stronger reaction from students and other political vested interests who were keen on unseating her as the country’s leader. Understandably, this is believed to have left several high-ranking officers of the Bangladesh Army in a dilemma, urging the PM to relinquish her post, to restore a semblance of peace and stability. The developments and the subsequent announcement about the formation of an interim government were quietly observed by New Delhi, given how the violence and targeted anti-minority pogroms and attacks on the Awami League’s supporters continued unabated. In India, the Ministry of External Affairs waited patiently, biding its time in preparation for the changing dynamics.

Neighbourhood Instabilities and Perceptions

For Indian security experts and policymakers, the current situation to its East is yet another fire to douse in the neighbourhood. From the takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban, deteriorating security and socioeconomic conditions in Pakistan, and the economic crisis in Sri Lanka, to the Muizzu-led Government’s anti-India posturing in Maldives, the Modi Government was compelled to deal with an array of challenging geopolitical predicaments in the last 5 years. However, contrary to the hyperbole in Indian media over the Bangladesh crisis, some experts argue that India enjoys significant leverage over Bangladesh, forestalling the doomsday scenarios.

Despite the current uncertainty, India is expected to hedge its bets on Bangladesh’s dependence on New Delhi and the existing engagement mechanisms with stakeholders, just like it did with other state and non-state actors in South Asia, patiently waiting for the tide to turn. For the coming months, India will be intent on ensuring the status quo, effectively communicating its core interests, and achieving its foreign policy objectives.

Historical Context and Indian Concerns

Trouble had been brewing in Bangladesh for a considerable time, given the growing discontent among some sections over PM Hasina’s alleged crackdowns and the Awami League’s overreach over the 15 long years of rule under her government. In addition, her decisions and actions were considered autocratic and anti-democratic purges, as evidenced by the strong responses from the US and its Western allies over recent years. For instance, the US State Department even raised several questions about the legitimacy of all the previous elections, as one of the largest opposition parties, the Bangladesh National Party (BNP), boycotted the 2024 polls. For India, it is no secret that its policy positions reflected consistent support to the Awami League since Bangladesh’s independence, given the close association with Sheikh Mujib-ur-Rehman, and PM Hasina, despite the usual differences and Bangladesh’s overtures to China in recent years. Moreover, Indian attitudes towards Sheikh Hasina were shaped over decades, clearly indicating the carefully crafted national security doctrine from New Delhi, which emphasised economic ties to the East through the ‘Look East’ and later the ‘Act East’ policies.

While it is assumed that New Delhi would have accounted for all eventualities of political instability to its East, the sequence of events and the lead-up to PM Hasina’s exit into exile, left Indian policymakers in the lurch. Only time will tell whether India will turn a new leaf vis-a-vis its equations with the BNP. The deep and mutual mistrust has developed over the decades if Khaleda Zia and her associates’ overt actions are to be believed. However, India’s biggest concerns pertain to the safety of Hindu minorities, who often tend to be the scapegoats in the targeted pogroms of Bangladesh’s Islamist forces and radical political outfits such as the Jamaat-e-Islami. Similarly, India would wish for continuity in agreements related to transportation, power sharing, and other projects which brought considerable investments from Indian investors under PM Hasina’s administration. However, PM Modi’s post on the social media platform X shows India’s clear stance against the violence in Bangladesh and India’s intentions to see normalcy return to the country under the advisory of Muhammad Yunus’s interim government. A much less spoken challenge pertains to India’s fears over support for anti-India activities and history repeating itself. In the past, India believed that the BNP had allowed anti-India rebels, including the Mizo militant groups, and more recently, members of the Kuki National Front, who have been fomenting trouble in the North East.

Opportunities and Challenges for India

India’s predicament in dealing with the crisis in Bangladesh is not new, nor is it unresolvable. While the country enjoyed favourable economic and security conditions under PM Hasina’s reign, India has experienced far more debilitating realities vis-a-vis Bangladesh and its impact on India’s North East. The MEA and the national security apparatus will likely cultivate new equations, even while it plans to play the long game. Despite Bangladesh's significant economic successes, the change of guard would hope to sustain the country’s advancements at a time when its recovery from the post-pandemic and conflict-ridden global order has slowed considerably. For instance, garment manufacturing-led exports have slowed, forex reserves shrunk gradually to $17.2 billion, and civil strife is yet to be fully assuaged before the country returns to normalcy. The last thing it needs now is a fractured relationship with a regional hegemon and its largest neighbour, India. Moreover, future purges against pro-Hasina voices and businesses would impact investor confidence, impacting prospective investors from China, the US or the rest from venturing into Bangladesh.

The Indian Government naturally hopes that the interim government in Dhaka believes it is in their interest to ensure continuity. Furthermore, India would expect it to undertake tough yet necessary measures to stop the violence against Hindus and other minorities. By not calling off the BIMSTEC summit scheduled between the 6th-8th of August, India once again expressed its policy agenda will continue despite the ‘domestic political developments’ of member countries.

India’s real challenge would involve persuading Western voices on its interests and how it sees the situation evolve, given the views espoused by the US and others favouring opposition parties like the BNP. Furthermore, any deterioration of civic order could have a disastrous effect on the border, exacerbating the migration from Bangladesh, a challenge that has already stretched Indian state capacities. Amidst fears over safe havens for the operation of rebel groups and negative public perceptions about India, the MEA and the national security apparatus have their task cut out for them. While challenging, India must continue exploring all tools in its arsenal to discredit unfavourable outcomes and provide inducements to Bangladesh if and when it chooses to maintain the status quo. For observers in New Delhi, the hope would be that in due course, India’s long-haul strategies pay off, just as they did in Sri Lanka and Afghanistan.

Top Stories of the Week

PM Approves 8 Railway Projects Worth ₹24,657 crore and 900 Km

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has approved eight railway projects the Ministry of Railways proposed under the PM GatiShakti National Master Plan. With an estimated cost of ₹24,657 crore, these projects will expand Indian Railways' coverage by nearly 900 km, benefiting 14 districts across seven states: Odisha, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Telangana, and West Bengal.

The projects include the construction of 64 new stations, improving connectivity for six aspirational districts (East Singhbhum, Bhadradri Kothagudem, Malkangiri, Kalahandi, Nabarangpur, and Rayagada), approximately 510 villages, and about 40 lakh people. These routes will be crucial for transporting various commodities, including agricultural products, fertilisers, coal, iron ore, steel, cement, bauxite, limestone, aluminium powder, granite, and containers. The capacity enhancements are expected to boost freight traffic by 143 Million Tonnes Per Annum.

As an environmentally friendly and energy-efficient mode of transportation, it is said that these railway projects will contribute to achieving climate goals, reducing logistics costs, decreasing oil imports by 32.20 crore litres, and lowering CO2 emissions by 0.87 million tonnes—equivalent to planting 3.5 crore trees. Additionally, the projects will connect the UNESCO World Heritage site, Ajanta Caves, to the Indian Railway network, facilitating a large influx of tourists.

Cabinet Approves Clean Plant Programme to Boost Horticulture

The Union Cabinet has approved the Clean Plant Programme (CPP) to enhance the quality and productivity of horticulture crops. The Ministry of Agriculture has sought an allocation of Rs 1,765 crore for the programme. Half of this will be sourced from the Mission for Integrated Development of Horticulture (MIDH) budget, while the other half will be a loan from the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

CPP will focus on three key components:

Establishment of Clean Plant Centres (CPCs): Nine world-class CPCs will be set up nationwide. These centres will have advanced diagnostic, therapeutic, and tissue culture laboratories to produce and maintain virus-free planting material for large-scale propagation.
Regulatory and Certification Process: A robust system will be in place to ensure accountability and traceability in the production and sale of planting materials, and to ensure high standards and quality control.
Support for Large-Scale Nurseries: Infrastructure development for nurseries will be supported for efficient multiplication of clean planting material.

The programme aims to benefit farmers by providing them access to virus-free, high-quality planting material, which is expected to boost crop yields and enhance income opportunities. Streamlined certification processes and infrastructure support will enable nurseries to propagate clean planting material, fostering growth and sustainability. Additionally, by focusing on superior, disease-free fruit production, India seeks to broaden market opportunities and strengthen its foothold in the international fruit trade.

This comprehensive programme, spearheaded by the National Horticulture Board in collaboration with the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), is designed to promote sustainable incomes, better facilities and greater transparency in agriculture.

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