The Aakhya Weekly #116 | The Future of the Indus Water Treaty: India’s Strategy Under Changing Circumstances
In Focus: Asserting a Renegotiation of the Indus Water Treaty
by Sasanka Kanuparthi
[First in a 3-Part Series on the Indus Water Treat, of 1960]
The India-Pakistan dispute over the Indus Water Treaty, 1960 (IWT), is once again generating traction in the geopolitical arena. Yet, the public discourse on the subject continues to remain two-dimensional broadly. It is either viewed as an exemplary success due to its longevity or as a relic of the 20th century that needs an urgent review and upgrade, depending on who you ask. The contentious issue was reignited last week, with numerous Indian media agencies breaking the news on India’s decision to serve a formal notice to Pakistan, seeking a review and modification of the Indus Water Treaty, 1960. Interestingly, this was just two days before Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the United States for the 4th QUAD Leaders summit, and other engagements with the Indian-American community and CEOs of critical technology companies.
India served the notice on 30 August 2024, about two and a half weeks before the Indian media caught wind of the developments. It is difficult to ascertain whether the media completely missed the story, or if it was timed deliberately to achieve desired outcomes. While practitioners of statecraft are better disposed to authenticate the intent, our focus is on analysing India’s motivations and concerns.
Setting the Context
Assessments on the efficacy of the IWT have been a recurring exercise in New Delhi, with India measuring its impact on economic growth, water security, and the region’s energy needs through hydel power generation. The series of actions taken by India since 216, marks the emergence of a strong consensus within the Indian strategic community, with policymakers believing that-
The concessions made by India in the 64 years of the treaty’s application are skewed overwhelmingly in Pakistan’s favour.
India’s efforts to resolve disputes were stalled repeatedly by Pakistan, slowing down the development of the Jammu & Kashmir region and delaying critical projects.
India must renegotiate the treaty, in response to Pakistan’s support to UN-designated terror groups like Jaish-e-Mohammad, which destabilise Jammu & Kashmir.
Contemporary challenges like climate change and fundamental changes in circumstances require the parties to review and renegotiate the treaty.
The lack of an exit clause in the treaty and Pakistan’s belligerent actions are detrimental to India’s interests.
Pakistan is unlikely to enter a formal review of the treaty in good faith, hence, India must seek all available options to offset the plausible disruptions.
Flagging of Concerns and Deep Distrust
Since January 2023, India has written to Pakistan four times, in a bid to build momentum for the talks on reviewing the Indus Water Treaty, of 1960. The aggressive tone and tenor of the latest notice is further evidence that India’s hardline positions will continue to dominate its strategic calculus on the Indus River water sharing until favourable conditions are renegotiated. The August 30 notice was served by citing Article XII(3) of the Indus Water Treaty, 1960, which states-
The provisions of this Treaty may from time to time be modified by a duly ratified treaty concluded for that purpose between the two Governments.
Media reports allude to Indian concerns over the IWT’s inadequacy in addressing present-day challenges on the Indian side, which include ‘changing demographics’, environmental issues, and transition to green energy, among others. However, the wider issues concern Pakistan’s consistent efforts to disrupt the Kishanganga and Ratle Hydel power projects under construction in the Jhelum River basin and Chenab River respectively, whose waters were allotted to Pakistan under the IWT. Moreover, India’s lived experiences negotiating and deliberating on various facets of the bilateral relationship with Pakistan, disincentivise a positive approach to the issues of IWT. Be it Pakistan’s actions blocking suggested initiatives for regional progress at the SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation), or the repeated sabotage of Indian-initiated peace efforts, today’s political dispensation in New Delhi is distrustful of its neighbour’s motivations.
Recent Developments and Indian Perspectives
Like several multilateral mechanisms and decisions of the post-war and post-partition era, the IWT, in India’s view has run its course, requiring a serious reassessment. Just like the security council’s ineptitude to alter its mechanisms and structures to accommodate 21st-century realities, India believes that even the IWT too requires a forward-looking approach in line with existing challenges and prospective climate effects on the Indus River basin.
A high-profile Pakistani delegation travelled to India in the last week of June, for the first time in five years, to inspect hydel power projects under the ambit of the IWT. This includes the Ratle project in the Jammu region, which is witnessing incidents of terror and clashes between armed militants and Indian armed forces in recent months. Despite the provocation, some international observers consider this a positive precedent for addressing disputes between India and Pakistan. They argue that IWT-linked dispute resolution channels should function independently and separately from the broader bilateral relationship. However, the consistency in India’s postures ever since the Pakistan-based terror group Jaish-e-Mohammed attacked Uri in 2016, indicates otherwise. While such views from external observers who seek genuine progress on the issue seem noble, popular opinion in New Delhi points to India’s efforts and a lack of reciprocity from the Pakistani side. Indian officials speak about India’s legacy of amicable resolution of water disputes in the past, adherence to international agreements, and India’s accommodative and generous approach to Pakistan’s concerns.
Moreover, the visit took place a couple of weeks after deadly terror attacks in the Reasi area in Jammu and PM Modi’s assumption of office for the third time. With terrorist violence in the Jammu region seeing an uptick, India’s hardened position on the IWT is unlikely to be decoupled from India’s overall position and scepticism about the future of the relationship with Pakistan.
Precursor to the Notice & Future Course-of-Action
In early August, Pakistan-based news articles covered the country’s allegations that India has not responded to calls for holding an annual meeting of the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC), calling it a violation of the treaty by India. Interestingly, after serving its latest notice, India clarified that it would not partake in any future meetings of the PIC unless the IWT is reviewed and renegotiated. Subsequently, Pakistan reacted strongly to India’s posture, asking it to abide by the provisions of the IWT. However, the country’s Foreign Office Spokesperson, Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, suggested that it is willing to discuss issues within the framework of the IWT.
Nevertheless, the Indian escalation matrix is less likely to present an easy way out for Pakistan in the near and long term. Going by the views presented by former government officials and defence experts, India might explore a range of pressure tactics to build momentum on the IWT’s review, including the prospect of its abrogation by relying on the provisions of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (VCLT), 1969.
The next piece in the series on the challenges concerning the Indus Water Treaty, 1960, will delve into the timeline of judgements and provisions sought by India and Pakistan in the past decade, the role of the Permanent Court of Arbitration, and the validity of the arguments emanating from India on the abrogation of the IWT.
Top Stories of the Week
TRAI Mandates the Whitelisting of URLs, APKS, and OTT Links for SMS
The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has mandated that from October 1, 2024, messages sent via SMS must only contain URLs and application package files (APKs) pre-approved or whitelisted. This initiative aims to enhance the security and reliability of SMS communications, particularly against the surge of phishing attacks and fraudulent schemes.
The regulation addresses the misuse of links in SMS, which has become a growing concern. By enforcing whitelisted URLs and APKs, TRAI seeks to protect consumers from malicious content and ensure that they are only exposed to verified safe links. This measure is expected to significantly reduce the spread of fraudulent messages that can lead to financial loss or security breaches. Service providers will be required to implement these guidelines effectively before the mandated date. The responsibility lies in ensuring that all outgoing messages comply with this new requirement, thereby fostering a more secure environment for digital communication. Violations may lead to penalties for those who fail to adhere to the regulations.
Industry stakeholders have welcomed TRAI's move, recognising its potential to enhance consumer trust in SMS communications. As the digital landscape evolves, such measures are crucial for maintaining a safe and reliable communication framework that protects users from the ever-growing threat of phishing and other cyber crimes.
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The recently signed bilateral agreement between the FSSAI and the Bhutan Food and Drug Authority (BFDA) represents a pivotal development in enhancing cooperation and reinforcing food safety protocols. This agreement aims to fortify the existing framework, ensuring the safety and integrity of food products, which is vital for safeguarding public health and promoting trade.
The agreement, a significant outcome of the growing collaboration between India and Bhutan, underscores their shared commitment to enhancing food safety standards, aligning regulatory frameworks, and streamlining import procedures. Its primary objective is to facilitate smoother trade by recognising BFDA's oversight of food business operators (FBOs) in Bhutan. Furthermore, this agreement serves as a proactive measure to tackle emerging food safety challenges. By synergising efforts, both nations can leverage their strengths to build robust food safety systems, enhancing public health outcomes. Additionally, it aims to strengthen technical cooperation between FSSAI and BFDA, equipping BFDA officials with the skills and technical expertise to uphold food safety standards.
This agreement reinforces the strategic partnership while setting a precedent for future collaborations across other sectors. It will ease trade between the two nations by reducing barriers, fostering increased market access, and creating economic opportunities for local producers. Such initiatives demonstrate a shared commitment to promoting regional stability through joint efforts in managing food safety and delivering economic and social benefits to both countries. Moreover, it paves the way for a stronger economic partnership, with long-term advantages for their respective societies and enhancing the ease of doing business between India and Bhutan.
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