The Aakhya Weekly #120 | Chinese Migration to Russia's Far East: Opportunities, Tensions, and the Role of Climate Change
In Focus: Chinese Migration Story in Russia's Far East
by Lovenish Kumar
From melting glaciers to raging wildfires, climate change is shaking things up everywhere. It’s not just a future problem—it’s happening right now. People are being forced to change the way they live, where they work, and even where they can survive. One of the most alarming effects? The mosquito line is creeping upward, bringing diseases to places that were once too cold for these pests. This is a clear sign that the planet’s climate zones are shifting, and it’s making a lot of people nervous.
So why is the world freaking out? Because the weather patterns that we once took for granted are no longer reliable. More extreme storms, floods, droughts, and heatwaves are becoming the new normal, affecting everything from agriculture to human health. And as these changes intensify, populations are starting to move—out of necessity. Climate migration is no longer a distant fear; it’s already happening, and one of the most striking examples is in Russia’s Far East.
Climate Change is Driving Migration: What Does It Mean?
Talking about climate migration, it’s not just about fleeing from rising sea levels or desertification. It’s also about moving to places where conditions are still favourable for living and growing food. For instance, as the Earth's temperature rises, fertile farmland in regions like China is drying up, pushing people to look northward. This is exactly what's driving Chinese migration to Russia’s Far East.
Water shortages and droughts in northeastern China, exacerbated by global warming, are leading farmers to seek new land in cooler regions. With its vast, underused land and favourable government policies, Russia’s Far East, has become an attractive option. This isn’t the first time this has happened: 3,000 years ago, similar climate changes led Mongol herders to move into Siberia to find more hospitable conditions.
The Rising Mosquito Line: A Symbol of Climate’s Reach
Take the mosquito line, for example—a phenomenon where mosquitoes are spreading into regions they’ve never been able to survive in before due to warming temperatures. Diseases like malaria and dengue are creeping into northern regions, threatening populations that have never had to worry about them (World Health Organization). This shift in ecosystems shows how even small temperature changes can have a massive ripple effect on human health and agriculture. As the line moves up, humans are forced to adapt—and sometimes, that means migrating.
Why Chinese Migration to Russia’s Far East is a Big Deal
Against this backdrop of climate shifts, let’s dive into what’s happening in Russia's Far East. Migration of Chinese nationals to Russia is largely driven by the promise of vast, fertile land. Moreover, this has been facilitated by both economic opportunities and government incentives. The Russian government, for years, has been looking for ways to populate and develop the region, offering attractive deals to foreign settlers, including Chinese farmers.
These migrations are not just spontaneous; they are rooted in historical ties. Parts of Russia's Far East were once Chinese territory, and the deep connection between northeastern China and this region is still felt today. However, what’s fueling this recent surge is the impact of climate change, which is turning China's farmland into dustbowls.
Agriculture and the Boom in the Russian Far East
Agriculture is the backbone of this migration. Russia’s Far East, with its sparse population and open lands, is a perfect match for China’s growing demand for food production. By 2030, experts predict that the region will export over 2 million tons of soybeans alone, up from 900,000 tons in 2018. Chinese investors have eagerly jumped on this opportunity, revitalising abandoned Russian farms and converting them into high-production agricultural hubs.
Climate Change's Silent Partner in Migration: Why Northeast China is Drying Up
Climate change isn’t just creating new opportunities for Chinese migrants—it’s forcing their hand. Water shortages and increasingly erratic weather patterns are hitting northeastern China hard, making it difficult for farmers to sustain their crops. According to reports from the U.S. National Intelligence Council, many of the current farmlands in northern China are expected to become nonviable by 2030 if trends continue. It’s no wonder people are looking north for new opportunities.
Historically, shifts in climate have always driven human migration. Just as the mosquito line creeps upward, so too do people, seeking better conditions for farming and living. This northward migration is a survival mechanism that Russia’s Far East is benefiting from and struggling to manage.
The Economic and Geopolitical Tensions
The Russian government may welcome the economic benefits of Chinese investments, however, everyone is yet to get on board. Russian locals, especially in sparsely populated areas, often feel uneasy about the rising number of Chinese settlers. Many fear job competition and even cultural erosion, as Russian-speaking populations feel threatened by non-Russian-speaking migrants. Moreover, while Chinese companies bring in money and technology, critics argue that Russia is giving up too much of its land and resources. The balance of power in these joint ventures often skews heavily in China’s favour, with Russia exporting resources and seeing relatively little return.
How Does India Fit Into This Equation?
India maintains ties with Russia and China, but the nature of the relationships is very different. Russia has been a key defence partner from the early Cold War years, providing India with most of its military equipment. China, while being India’s biggest trading partner, also has a tense relationship with India due to border disputes, maritime security challenges, and geopolitical competition in the region.
As Russia and China grow closer, India faces a tricky situation. India doesn’t want to upset Russia because it depends on them for defence, but at the same time, India is cautious of China’s increasing power. India’s response to this evolving relationship will likely focus on a few key areas:
Russia is a major exporter of oil and gas, and India has become one of its important buyers. As Russia strengthens its energy trade with China and India, it is imperative that India carefully manages its reliance on Russian energy. This could be a good opportunity for India, as long as it can navigate China’s growing role in these deals.
Chinese migration to Russia’s Far East is also expected to boost agriculture and infrastructure in the region, leading to new trade opportunities. However, India must take a cautious approach, given the likeliness of China dominating these supply chains.
The Future: More Migration and Climate Challenges
Climate change and growing economic ties between Russia and China are changing geopolitics and causing more migration. China is investing in agriculture, infrastructure, and resources in Russia’s Far East, which will make their relationship stronger. However, with these changes, tensions may rise as both countries try to balance cooperation and competition.
India will need to watch out for these shifts, as migration and economic changes in Eurasia could impact its interests and long-term geostrategic doctrines. The growing connection between Russia and China is just one part of a global movement affected by environmental changes and new economic alliances.
The deepening relationship between Russia and China, driven by climate change and economic needs, is part of a larger global shift. Migration, changing weather, and economic pressures are all interconnected forces shaping the world. For India, adapting to these changes and protecting its security and economy will be key to ensuring a successful future in this fast-changing world.
Top Stories of the Week
Union Govt Approves Hydrogen Pilot Projects in Steel Sector
As part of the National Green Hydrogen Mission, the Union Government has sanctioned three pilot projects to explore the use of hydrogen in steel production. The scheme aimed to discover advanced technologies for incorporating green hydrogen into steelmaking by conducting pilot projects.
The pilot projects seek to demonstrate the safety, technical feasibility, and economic viability of using green hydrogen to produce low-carbon steel. The three areas of focus include: (i) producing Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) using 100% hydrogen in a vertical shaft, (ii) reducing coal and coke consumption by using hydrogen in blast furnaces, and (iii) injecting hydrogen into DRI-making units based on vertical shafts.
After evaluating the submitted proposals, three pilot projects were approved. These are: (a) Matrix Gas and Renewables Ltd, with a plant capacity of 50 tons per day (TPD), (b) Simplex Castings Ltd, with a 40 TPD capacity, and (c) Steel Authority of India Ltd, Ranchi, with a capacity of 3,200 TPD. The government has allocated Rs. 347 crore for these initiatives, which are expected to be operational within the next three years.
Launched in January 2023 with a financial outlay of Rs. 19,744 crore, the National Green Hydrogen Mission aims to assert India’s leadership in the global clean energy transition. Through decarbonisation promotion and reducing reliance on fossil fuel imports, the mission supports India’s vision of Aatmanirbhar Bharat through clean energy.
Social Security Policy for Gig Workers
The Ministry of Labour and Employment is set to implement a policy for providing social security benefits to gig and platform workers by February of next year. As part of this initiative, a new enrollment module for platform workers will be launched on the e-Shram portal, enabling aggregators to facilitate registrations. To streamline the process, the Labour Ministry is considering issuing unique identification numbers for gig workers and allowing aggregators to contribute towards these benefits on a transaction basis.
The drafting committee, comprising various stakeholders, is finalising the policy framework to define the relationship between gig workers and their employers and establish the employer’s contribution to social security. The proposed policy will grant gig workers legal entitlements to social security benefits, linked to their unique IDs while ensuring that benefits can be accessed across state lines. In addition, the Labour Ministry has extended enhanced benefits under the Employees' Deposit Linked Insurance Scheme (EDLI). The maximum benefits have been raised from ₹6 lakh to ₹7 lakh, and the eligibility conditions have been relaxed to allow more employees access to these enhancements. Moreover, a standard operating procedure (SOP) is being developed to categorise unorganised workers and align them with various central and state welfare schemes such as the Pradhan Mantri Jeevan Jyoti Bima Yojana and Pradhan Mantri Suraksha Bima Yojana, ensuring comprehensive coverage for their needs.
A Few Good Reads
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The India-China border agreement is viewed with cautious optimism. As Manoj Kewalramani states, “This is just the first step in a long process of normalisation.”
Rishvanjas Raghavan highlights the dire consequences of delayed municipal elections across major Indian cities like Chennai, Bengaluru, and Mumbai.
Changemakers
Celebrating Women Farmers and Their Impact
In collaboration with PS Rathour and Anandana, the Coca-Cola India Foundation celebrates the dedication and achievements of women farmers on Mahila Kisan Diwas. This artwork reflects their resilience and the significant changes they bring to their communities. Through initiatives like Project Unnati, these women receive capacity-building and skill-development training, along with access to innovative agricultural practices. Spanning various states, Project Unnati promotes horticultural innovation and growth, showcasing the vital role these women play in cultivating a sustainable future for Indian agriculture.
Check out the post here!
