The Aakhya Weekly #126 | India’s Stakes in Post-Assad Syria
In Focus: Assessing India’s Syria Equation & Future Priorities
by Sasanka Kanuparthi
Source: FMT
The world is still coming to terms with the new reality in Syria, as it attempts to understand how a 14+ year-long civil war and strife ended with the rebel coalition forces gaining steam, and toppling Bashar al-Assad’s government in just under 14 days. India, like several other observers the world over, expressed surprise at the quick turn of events, given the speed with which Syrian rebel forces reached town after town without resistance from the government forces, forcing former President Assad to flee to safer geographies. While continuity and consistency have been the Indian Foreign Policy mantras regarding political upheavals and changes in the Middle East and North Africa, India’s neutrality on these matters is justified by its strategic calculus, which believes that taking sides would be detrimental to its long-term interests.
Precedence and India’s Stance
Be it Saddam Hussein’s reign in Iraq, Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, or the Assad family’s rule in Syria, India maintained and even strengthened ties over the decades despite the many contradictions of the region's post-colonial political realities. Contrary to popular assumptions, India’s stance indicates policy continuity, with bipartisan support for preexisting equations and dynamics. While approaches may vary, the Modi Government’s objectives and postures indicate its long-standing position. Such balancing acts are not just confined to conflict zones, as they prioritise maintaining historical ties and networks. This is evidenced by India’s equations with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Israel, etc., even while it balances these through its deep ties with Iran, Russia, and other players that continue to dominate the geopolitics in the region. Moreover, the emphasis is largely on a bottom-up perspective, which consistently supports the emergence and resurgence of native political leadership, led by the people and representatives of the respective countries. For instance, the Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson commented immediately after the Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) takeover in Damascus, suggesting - "We advocate a peaceful and inclusive Syrian-led political process respecting the interests and aspirations of all sections of Syrian society." The briefing, apart from expressing its concerns over the turn of events and Syria’s domestic political future also advised the need to keep the country’s unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity intact. The rest of the piece will explore the history of India’s equation with the region and analyse India’s position and stakes.
Contemporary Perspective on India-Syria Relations
India's foreign policy in the Middle East, particularly towards Syria and Iraq, is shaped by its historical ties, cultural affinity, and pragmatism, given how it has allowed India to maintain good relations with both nations despite their deeply entrenched conflicts and sectarian divides. India's approach—anchored in non-alignment and multilateralism— often contrasts with the interventionist and factional policies dictated by the interests of the US and the wider West. Moreover, India has supported Syria on various international issues over the decades. For instance, India has consistently supported Syria’s claim over the Golan Heights and remained a strong proponent of the Palestinian cause, advocating for a two-state solution.
While India’s relations with Israel burgeoned since the 1990s and more so under successive governments of PM Modi, India’s consistent positions on the Palestinian question, including various collaborative efforts with Syria and the wider Arab world generated considerable goodwill politically, as well as with the region’s peoples. In addition, India’s insistence on maintaining its diplomatic presence in Damascus despite the peak in the cycles of violence during the civil war over the previous decade, generated support in India’s favour for its undeterred respect for Syrian sovereignty and for being a proponent of dialogue and diplomacy as a neutral arbiter. India’s development assistance stands out in this context, given that a $240 million ‘Line of Credit’ was offered for a power plant, supported by India’s investments in Syria’s infrastructure, and exports of pharmaceuticals and food grains— further solidifying its equation and partnership with Syria.
By continuously advocating for a Syrian-led political solution to the conflict, India secured key interests vis-a-vis its energy dependence in the region, showing several countries a third way, one pushing for a non-interfering and humanitarian-focused approach. Conversely, Syria has consistently backed India's stance on contentious issues, including Kashmir, often supporting it whenever global conversations on the subject were raked up, suggesting that it is India’s internal matter. Naturally, this alignment has cultivated a unique partnership, largely unaffected by the broader sectarian and geopolitical temperament of various conflict-fraught factions in the Middle East.
What’s at Stake for India?
The crisis in Syria reminds us of the extent to which India’s interests remain interconnected with the Middle East, given its hope for long-term stability in the region. As New Delhi navigates this uncertain terrain, its ability to balance competing priorities will be tested severely, and the outcomes in the coming years will define whether its diplomatic manoeuvring pays dividends. In the current scenario, the risk-to-reward ratio of Indian diplomatic and financial capital invested in Syria remains unfavourable for at least the short to medium term. India has invested in Syrian infrastructure, including the Tishreen Thermal Power Plant, and led initiatives like the India-Syria IT Centre of Excellence, cultural programs, scholarships, and modernisation efforts in sectors like phosphate production. However, beyond the strong people-to-people ties, India must prepare to deal with several unknowns for creating pathways to larger political gains. For instance, Bashar al-Assad’s fall and the ascent of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group with roots in Al-Qaeda, cast a shadow of difficulty over any approach India might take in building ties in the near term, and the instability poses challenges for planning any long-term engagement strategy.
While India comes to terms with the dangerous quagmire, the immediate concern remains the safety of Indian nationals in Syria, many of whom work in global multilateral or humanitarian organisations. Moreover, the deteriorating security situation has prompted the Ministry of External Affairs to issue advisories urging Indian nationals to leave the country. Given the precedence set by India in evacuating its citizens from conflict zones like Ukraine, Yemen etc. in the past decade, this could be the likely move by the Modi Government if the conditions worsen. Energy security emerges as another critical factor as Middle Eastern countries supply a significant portion of India’s crude, and instabilities in Syria could exacerbate the energy crisis and cause market volatility. For India’s internal and national security apparatuses, the biggest concern would be the aftereffects of the takeover by Islamic fundamentalists. This could potentially impact India’s youth, radicalising them to turn to terror activities and emboldening them to act similarly. India’s experience with online radicalisation linked to ISIS during its peak activity in Syria highlights the persistent threat of extremist ideologies reaching Indian soil. Enhanced surveillance and counter-radicalization measures will be essential to mitigate these risks.
Walking Multiple Diplomatic Tight-Ropes
India will closely monitor the geopolitical ramifications of Assad’s ouster, as the uncertainties could produce more unfavourable outcomes if regional actors decide to have more skin in the game. The largest casualty of the instability could be the already-delayed India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) initiative, whose progress was hindered following the Israel-Gaza war. Amid these challenges, India has its task cut out for it, as it must prepare to walk multiple tight ropes, while it remains pragmatic and adaptive. Maintaining dialogue with all stakeholders, including the new Syrian leadership, while upholding its principles of non-interference, will be more consistent and continual. Simultaneously, India should position itself as a partner for Syria’s eventual reconstruction, similar to its reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan and in maintaining unofficial diplomatic links with the current Taliban administration.
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