In Focus: From Supply Chains to Supply Loops
We have long been told that we live in a global village, where economies are deeply interconnected, and supply chains stretch seamlessly across borders. This interdependence has delivered efficiency, but moments of crisis reveal its limits. What appears as seamless connectivity in stable times quickly turns into vulnerability when disruptions hit.
The recent escalation in West Asia is a reminder of exactly this. Within days, aviation turbine fuel prices began to rise, panic buying was reported at petrol pumps, and shortages of commercial LPG started affecting restaurants and small industrial units. The impact was immediate and widespread, once again exposing how deeply India’s economic stability is tied to external supply chains.
At the centre of this vulnerability lies energy security. Oil and gas continue to underpin the functioning of the economy, and disruptions in their supply translate almost instantly into economy-wide stress. This is also a space that has been widely debated, with sustained policy focus on diversifying supply, building reserves, and reducing import dependence. Foundational challenges persist, and they remain far from resolved. Yet, precisely because these systems are so fundamental, the next layer of resource dependence deserves attention.
As India and the world transition towards clean energy, electric mobility, renewable energy and advanced manufacturing, critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt and rare earth elements are becoming essential inputs. According to NITI Aayog’s assessment, India’s cumulative demand for critical energy transition minerals could reach ~169 million tonnes under a net zero pathway, significantly higher than current policy trajectories.
Unlike hydrocarbons, this is still a relatively nascent space where demand is rising, but supply chains are still being shaped. India is not yet fully locked into rigid dependencies, leaving it with greater room to influence how these systems evolve. Over two-thirds of cumulative mineral demand will materialise after 2050, indicating that while supply risks are urgent, there is also a window to build long-term resilience.
India’s Current Approach: Securing Access
India’s policy response has largely centred on securing access to critical minerals through a mix of institutional reform, regulatory changes, and targeted financial incentives. A list of 30 critical minerals was identified in 2023, creating a clear prioritisation framework for policy and investment. This has been supported by legislative changes, particularly amendments to the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act, which grant the central government greater control over auctioning key critical mineral blocks and open the sector to increased private participation, while streamlining licensing processes.
At the core of this approach is the National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM), launched as a comprehensive strategy to secure both domestic and global supply chains. With a government outlay of approximately ₹16,300 crore and additional investments expected from public and private sector players, the mission spans the entire value chain from exploration and mining to processing, recycling, R&D, and overseas asset acquisition.
It also includes structural initiatives such as the establishment of Centres of Excellence, targets for 1,000 patents by 2030, and support for unconventional sources such as mine tailings and industrial waste, signalling a broad-based approach to resource security.
In parallel, the government has introduced targeted measures to support downstream industries. These include rationalisation of customs duties on mineral inputs and scrap, as well as incentives to strengthen domestic processing capabilities. More recently, a ₹1,500 crore incentive scheme has been approved to promote recycling of critical minerals from e-waste, batteries and end-of-life products. Global supply chains for critical minerals are highly concentrated, with a few countries dominating extraction, processing, and refining. Securing access through such measures is therefore a critical first step.
The Untapped Resource Within
Unlike resources that are consumed immediately, critical minerals remain embedded within products for long periods. Their scarcity does not manifest as sudden disruptions, but as constraints on manufacturing capacity, rising input costs, and delays in scaling emerging technologies. This makes the risk less visible in the short term, but more structural in its long-term impact.
At the same time, this characteristic creates an overlooked opportunity. These materials do not disappear after use. Every discarded electronic device, battery, or piece of infrastructure contains recoverable quantities of lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements. Over time, these materials accumulate within the economy, forming a dispersed but increasingly significant stock of “above-ground” resources.
India’s material flows already point to the scale of this opportunity. The country generated approximately 6.19 million tonnes of e-waste in 2024, a figure projected to rise to 14 million tonnes by 2030, growing at nearly 17 per cent annually. On the other hand, demand for lithium-ion batteries is expected to expand sharply, from around 40 GWh in 2025 to reach about 210 GWh by 2030, driven by electric mobility and energy storage. These trends indicate that the volume of recoverable materials within the economy will increase rapidly over the coming decades.
Urban mining provides the mechanism to translate this latent stock into a functional source of supply. Recovering materials from end-of-life products and reintegrating them into production cycles, it creates a secondary supply stream that can complement primary extraction. As demand scales, the ability to recover and reuse materials domestically can act as a stabilising force in an otherwise concentrated and volatile global supply system.
The Structural Limitation
Yet, the current system falls short of realising this potential. Only about 10 per cent of India’s e-waste is processed through formal recycling systems, even though the country has over 400 authorised recyclers and dismantlers. The constraint is less about installed capacity and more about how material moves through the system. Collection remains the weakest link, with limited formal collection points, low consumer awareness, and fragmented channels that prevent consistent aggregation of waste. As a result, a significant share of end-of-life products does not enter formal value chains in a timely or traceable manner, directly affecting recovery efficiency.
Even as demand for critical minerals rises and policy efforts focus on securing external supply, a growing domestic stock of the same materials remains underutilised. Urban mining and recycling, therefore, exist as real but under-leveraged opportunities, with clear gaps between material availability, its aggregation, and its conversion into usable inputs for industry.
Importantly, both urban mining and recycling have been recognised within policy, as the NCMM and broader circular economy frameworks acknowledge the role of secondary supply. At the same time, e-waste and battery waste management rules have played a critical role in building the ecosystem by introducing Extended Producer Responsibility, improving traceability, and setting minimum standards as early as 2022. This compliance-driven approach has been extremely important in creating a baseline market for recycling.
However, the sector remains to be treated primarily as a regulatory obligation within the ecosystem, rather than as a strategic pillar of resource security. While compliance mechanisms can create a market, they cannot by themselves scale it to meet the demands of a rapidly evolving industrial transition. For that, the sector needs to be repositioned: not as waste management, but as a strategic industry.
Rethinking Resource Security
India’s experience with resource dependence offers a clear lesson. Systems built primarily around access can function efficiently under stable conditions, but remain vulnerable under stress. Critical minerals present an opportunity to take a different approach. A significant share of the materials required for India’s economic transition is already embedded within its own economy. Recognising and mobilising this resource base will be central to reducing dependence and strengthening long-term resilience. Resource security, in this context, is not just about securing supply. It is about managing circulation.
Top Stories of the Week
Cabinet Clears Next-Gen UDAN: Strengthening Regional Aviation for the Next Decade
The Union Cabinet, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has approved the launch and implementation of the Regional Connectivity Scheme–Modified UDAN for a period of ten years. With a total outlay of ₹28,840 crore, the scheme aims to significantly enhance regional air connectivity across the country, focusing on Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities, remote, and underserved areas. The initiative is expected to act as a catalyst for economic growth by boosting trade, tourism, and local employment opportunities. At the same time, it seeks to make air travel more affordable and accessible to a larger section of the population. Improved connectivity will also strengthen emergency response capabilities in remote regions, ensuring quicker access during critical situations.
The key components of the scheme include the development, operation, and maintenance of aerodromes, along with the construction of modern helipads to improve last-mile connectivity. It also provides for viability gap funding to support commercially unviable routes and encourages the acquisition of indigenously manufactured aircraft under the Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative. Overall, the scheme represents a comprehensive effort to build an inclusive and self-reliant regional aviation ecosystem.
Indian Railways Tightens the Refund Window
Indian Railways is set to roll out new ticket cancellation rules from 1 April 2026, introducing stricter norms for refunds and cancellations. The revised policy aims to curb misuse of bookings and reduce last-minute cancellations.
Under the new framework, cancellations made more than 72 hours before departure will receive a maximum refund, with only a minimum flat cancellation charge per passenger applied. For cancellations between 72 hours and 24 hours, 25% of the fare will be deducted, subject to the minimum charge. Cancellations made between 24 hours and 8 hours before departure will see a 50% deduction. No refund will be provided if a confirmed ticket is cancelled less than eight hours before departure.Additionally, refund rules for PRS counter tickets and e-tickets have been revised. Chart preparation timing has also been advanced from 4 hours to 9–18 hours before departure, giving passengers more time and certainty to make alternative travel arrangements if tickets are not confirmed.
A Few Good Reads
Seema Sirohi examines Donald Trump’s contradictory stance on the Iran–Israel war, balancing talk of “peace” with a surge of US troops in the region.
Smiran Bhandari underscores India’s energy vulnerability, noting how reliance on Gulf oil and the Strait of Hormuz leaves New Delhi exposed to geopolitical shocks.
Richa Roy and Arundhati Katju argue that India’s ambition to be a global AI infrastructure hub is undermined by three deficits — environmental risks, lack of domestic innovation, and vulnerability to sanctions.
Stella O’Malley critiques teenage social media bans, arguing that the real issue is restoring parental authority rather than expanding government control.
In this interview, Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote warns that Iran needs only one successful strike in the Strait of Hormuz to trigger a global oil catastrophe, exposing the vulnerability of tanker convoys.