The Aakhya Weekly #75 | Election Edition
The Aakhya Weekly #75 | Election Edition
In Focus: Unravelling the Electoral Tapestry of 2023: BJP-Congress Crossover
By Devyani Wadera
As the elections conclude in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana, and Mizoram, clear victors have emerged for each territory. The first three states—Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan—have been adorned with the saffron colour, the BJP flag flailing triumphantly over the heartland. The statistics tell a resounding tale for the BJP, securing 54 out of 90 seats in Chhattisgarh, 115 out of 199 seats in Rajasthan, where in both states it has unseated the incumbent Congress party, and 163 out of 230 seats in Madhya Pradesh, where it has retained its rule. BJP snatched these states right from under Congress's nose, wiping the state from the northern landscape. Congress, which earlier struggled to convert its state victories into a formidable opposition and a successful campaign in general elections, is now also faltering in retaining state governments. The recent elections have left Congress grappling with diminishing influence on both the state and national fronts.
Congress Triumphs in South, Falters in North
However, some respite has been found in the victory in Telangana, where the party secured 64 seats, surpassing the majority threshold of 60 seats. This consolation prize came by dethroning the regional power, Bharat Rashtra Samithi. This marks Congress's second win in the south, following its resounding victory in Karnataka, highlighting that the party is making decent inroads in southern India. This contrasts sharply with its experience in the northern belt, where it is now left with only one state—Himachal Pradesh—while the rest have been coloured saffron.
Many hail this as the resurgence of the Congress after facing multiple setbacks in the Vindhyas. The success can be attributed to the new face of the party in Telangana, A. Revanth Reddy. The grand party relied on the prominence and connections of the local leader, projecting Reddy as a significant leader alongside the party’s national figures. His aggressive style coupled with his unrelenting attacks on the poor performance of Chief Minister K. Chandrasekhar Rao and his party seem to have greatly aided the Congress.
This comeback seems to have provided some measure of a morale boost to the party; however, the losses in the northern belt have more or less overshadowed this triumph. The party’s inability to replicate similar victories in the northern states, where it engaged in direct competition with the BJP, underscores a significant disconnect and a lack of appeal to the masses.
BJP's Surge, Congress's Retreat, and the Modi Factor
In 2018, Congress had emerged victorious in all three states, marking a crucial triumph. Today, the BJP asserts its authority over these states, revealing the harsh impact of anti-incumbency on Congress. It serves as a rude awakening for the party, which was confident about winning these three states. This complacency, rooted in over-confidence, led the party to stick with Congress veterans like Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan, Bhupesh Baghel in Chhattisgarh, and Kamal Nath in Madhya Pradesh. Unfortunately, they fell short and did not resonate with voters.
Chief Ministers Ashok Gehlot and Baghel rolled out a slew of welfare schemes targeting diverse segments—empowering women, uplifting the youth, supporting farmers, and aiding tribal communities, with exciting promises of more to follow. The BJP, not to be outdone, swiftly countered with a strategic arsenal of its own welfare policies and enticing freebies. This included affordable gas cylinders, alluring incentives for farmers, such as boosted procurement rates for paddy, free rations, and direct cash transfers. What truly captured the public's attention was the Ladli Behna scheme in Madhya Pradesh where months before the elections, the BJP orchestrated a masterstroke by transferring 1,200 rupees directly to women. This move not only proved essential but also struck a chord, making it more irresistible to voters and skilfully outshining Congress in this political gambit.
However, what differentiated the BJP was its star campaigner, Narendra Modi, whose resonance with voters in the northern region played in BJP's favour. The BJP did not project a chief ministerial face in all three states; instead, Prime Minister Modi became the face of the campaigns. The BJP campaign focused on 'Modi ki guarantee' to assure voters that the promises made to them would be honoured. Being the sole face of the campaign, ‘Modi ki guarantee’ became the BJP’s warranty for the nation. And as the elections result came out, ‘Modi hai toh Mumkin’ turned out be true for BJP.
After clinching three significant victories, the BJP has significantly expanded its influence across the nation, just months ahead of the impending general election. Presently, the party holds power in 12 out of India's 28 states and is part of the ruling coalition in four others. The northern region has been effectively transformed into a Congress-mukt zone by the BJP, with almost no Congress presence except in Himachal Pradesh. As of December 2023, states (majority and ruling) governed by the BJP account for 58 percent of India's land area, representing a staggering 57 percent of the population. The Congress, once a formidable political force, now governs only three states—Telangana, Karnataka, and Himachal Pradesh that comprises only 8.51 percent of the country's population.
What will happen in 2024?
The BJP's victory in the north not only translates to control over 12 states but also commands the allegiance of a staggering 41 percent of the country's population. In coalition governments, this influence extends beyond 50 percent, forming a vote bank that the BJP is banking on for support in 2024. This backing emerges as a significant advantage for the BJP as it gears up for the upcoming elections. Recall 2019, when the BJP clinched victory in 171 out of 186 seats directly contested against Congress, predominantly in the Central and Northern states. A similar narrative seems to be unfolding this time, shaping a familiar scenario in 2023. Adding to the BJP's arsenal is the Modi brand, a potent force that remains a key asset. In the political battleground, the brand Modi stands resilient.
Has the Congress been completely ousted? Not really. While the recent defeats in three states reflect poorly on the Congress, the party's vote share has only slightly decreased in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. In fact, in Rajasthan, where the Congress won in 2018, the party's vote share has increased from 39.3% to 39.53% in 2023. The drop in vote share is marginal in Madhya Pradesh (40.9% to 40.4%) and Chhattisgarh (43% to 42.2%). This offers a glimmer of hope for the Congress party in the upcoming 2024 elections. It underscores that the Congress has not been entirely side-lined in the north and suggests a potential for a comeback.
As the BJP offers a sneak peek into the upcoming 2024 elections, it appears that Prime Minister Modi and the BJP are poised for a replay of their 2019 performance. Or will the Congress and its allies orchestrate a turnaround that defies expectations? Only time will tell.
Top Stories of the Week
India extends $250 million LOC for Kenya’s agri revamp
Kenya's president, William Samoei Ruto, concluded his visit to India on Wednesday. This visit has been crucial in taking forward India-Kenya relations as several important discussions were carried out and key initiatives were announced. Given that agriculture is central to both countries' economies, one of the major announcements included India pledging a $250 million Line of Credit (LOC) for Kenya’s agricultural modernisation.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, after meeting President Ruto said, “As two agricultural economies, we have agreed to share experiences in this field. We have decided to extend a Line of Credit of $250 million for modernisation of the agricultural sector in Kenya. According to the needs of our times, we will increase partnership in innovation and technology”. Additionally, the government will also be encouraging Indian companies to invest in Kenya’s agricultural sector as Kenya will provide land to Indian companies for cultivating crops, including millet.
The Kenyan President, at a joint meeting of India’s industry chambers, also highlighted that Indian companies should set up manufacturing facilities in Kenya, which will not only give them access to the Kenyan population but also the whole of Africa due to the benefits of the Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement.
COP28: Financing the climate change initiative
Dubai is hosting the 28th COP (Conference of Parties) session from November 30 to December 12, 2023. The session is going to focus on climate change challenges and the need for enhanced financing, especially for developing countries requiring over $2.4 trillion annually by 2030. COP28 aims to transform climate finance, seeking a more equitable and accessible international architecture.
The key objectives for climate finance include rebuilding trust, increasing public support, particularly for the most vulnerable countries, and providing augmented grants and concessional loans. Another crucial objective is mobilizing private capital in emerging and developing countries through partnerships, policy incentives, and innovative financing instruments.
Several key initiatives have been launched in tandem with these objectives. The "Leaders' Event: Transforming Climate Finance" brought together leaders from governments, finance institutions, and civil society to advance concrete solutions. A pre-COP28 Summit, organized by the Global Ethical Finance Initiative with the London Stock Exchange, focused on transforming climate finance. The UAE's ALTÉRRA Fund, a $30 billion initiative, aims to bridge the climate finance gap, allocating $25 billion to climate strategies and $5 billion to incentivize investment flows into the Global South.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi actively participated in the COP-28 Presidency’s Session focused on "Transforming Climate Finance." The event aimed to improve climate finance accessibility for developing countries. During the session, leaders collectively endorsed the "UAE Declaration on a New Global Climate Finance Framework," emphasizing commitments and broadening finance sources. Indian PM expressed concerns for the Global South, urging urgent implementation of climate finance measures. He appreciated the Loss and Damage Fund and the UAE Climate Investment Fund. He also called for COP-28 progress on key areas, including the New Collective Quantified Goal, Green Climate Fund and Adaptation Fund replenishment, affordable finance from MDBs, and developed countries reducing their carbon footprint by 2050.
India’s proactive involvement underscores India's commitment to advancing the global climate finance agenda and addressing developing nations' unique needs for sustainable climate solutions.
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