The Aakhya Weekly #90 | Indo-Russia Dynamics Amidst Spiralling Conflicts & Re-elections
The Aakhya Weekly #90 | Indo-Russia Dynamics Amidst Spiralling Conflicts & Re-elections
In Focus: India-Russia Relations- The Road Ahead in an Election Year
By Devyani Wadera
Source: https://twitter.com/narendramodi/status/1570776789936640000?lang=en
In what comes as little surprise, Vladimir Putin has once again solidified his control over Russia by winning the presidential elections. This marks his sixth term in office, extending his reign until 2030, a tenure that commenced in 2000 when he assumed the role of acting prime minister. Putin's overwhelming triumph, with a staggering 87% of the votes, raises several questions about the state of Russia’s democratic apparatus, where any semblance of genuine opposition seems non-existent. Experts across the world, primarily those from the west, suggest that a systematic neutralisation has been in play long before the elections commenced. In line with the allegations over the orchestrated nature of the event, the West wasted no time in condemning Putin's reelection as a mere facade masking the lack of democratic processes.
In contrast to the west, congratulatory messages flowed in from countries across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Notably, India, China, North Korea, and Saudi Arabia were among the first to extend their support. Given the decades-old ties, Prime Minister Modi swiftly expressed his backing through a congratulatory tweet, affirming India's commitment to strengthening the "time-tested special and privileged strategic partnership". India's stance reflects its historical relations and recent decisions to refrain from publicly criticising Russia, opting instead for a neutral position, which is often interpreted as a subtle pro-Moscow tilt.
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar often describes India and Russia as the only constants in global politics. This alliance, spanning decades, is marked by a multifaceted partnership, where both nations have consistently lent each other crucial support on the international stage. Whether it's the Kremlin's diplomatic backing on Kashmir or India's steadfast refusal to condemn Russia's actions in Ukraine, the support between the two nations remains unwavering. For its stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India has drawn much ire from the international community. However, it has remained resolute, publicly rejecting pressures to align with Western viewpoints, while gaining positive traction among the countries of the Global South. India's reluctance to condemn Russia is linked to its heavy reliance on Russian arms, which is further accentuated by tensions with China and Pakistan. This is a tough diplomatic tightrope India has been trying to balance, requiring a great deal of tact and finesse. On one hand, India is actively seeking closer ties with the west through its numerous strategic partnerships and trade negotiations, and on the other, it is trying to safeguard its strategic interests while upholding its relationship with Russia.
What would the next couple of years look like for this relationship? In which domains can we anticipate cooperation and advancement?
Barrels Stack Up
Over the past two years, India has emerged as the largest buyer of Russian oil, marking a significant shift, driven in part by Western sanctions that prompted Russia to seek new markets. Previously, India's imports of Russian oil were relatively modest, with much of it directed towards European markets. This strategic shift not only bolstered Russia's economy but also enhanced India's energy security. This surge in imports translated into significant savings for India, amounting to $7 billion in the fiscal year 2022-23, and contributed to bilateral trade reaching $49.36 billion. Currently, Russian oil accounts for 36% of India’s total imports, and the discounted rates are half the price compared to the Middle East, presenting a lucrative deal for India to meet its domestic demands. Also, negotiations are ongoing between Indian state refiners such as Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, Hindustan Petroleum, and Russian major Rosneft, for an annual deal to secure up to 400,000 bpd of Russian oil, primarily Urals, for the 2024-25 period. Henceforth, one can anticipate an amplification of trade and collaboration within the energy sector, serving as a significant cornerstone in the years to come.
Economic Maritime Corridor: Trade Unlocked
Other than the recent uptick primarily driven by oil imports, commercial trade between Russia and India has been lacklustre to say the least. Out of the $49 billion in trade, India's exports to Russia amounts to only $4 billion, encompassing commodities like iron, pharmaceuticals, organic chemicals, and agricultural goods. Nevertheless, in the near future, a more optimistic scenario is likely to emerge with the advancement of the Eastern Maritime Corridor (EMC), presenting ample opportunities for the expansion of India-Russia trade relations. Spanning 5,600 nautical miles, the EMC aims to reduce freight costs, expedite transit times, and establish new trade routes, connecting India to Russia. Once operational, it's expected to cut transportation times from over 40 days to just 24 days, facilitating smoother sea trade between Chennai and Vladivostok. Given recent disruptions in the Suez Canal and Red Sea regions, the EMC presents a timely opportunity for India to enhance its trade connectivity with Russia. This corridor could serve as a vital channel for trading essential commodities such as coking coal, crude oil, LNG, and fertilisers, and help explore new avenues for trade relations. Furthermore, it is poised to catalyse a surge in bilateral trade, extending beyond oil, diversifying into other sectors.
The Defence Dilemma
India's historical reliance on Russia for arms stretches back to the 1960s, seen as a formidable partnership that has witnessed investments exceeding $60 billion in the past two decades. From the S-400 anti-missile system to cutting-edge fighter aircrafts, and collaborative projects like the BrahMos missile program, India has procured a diverse array of advanced weaponry from Russia. However, recent years have marked a deliberate shift in India's procurement strategy, spurred by a pressing need to diversify its sources and mitigate vulnerabilities stemming from global disruptions such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Additionally Putin’s strong tilt towards China after being shunned by the west, has also pressed New Delhi to diversify imports. India has gradually decreased its reliance on Russia from 62% to 45%, diversifying its defence procurement to include the US, Israel, and France, with France today being the second largest supplier with a 29% share.
With Russia grappling with its own military demands in the wake of the conflict, India has encountered delays and uncertainties, fueling concerns since the war erupted in February 2022. Consequently, India has actively sought alternatives to supplement its defence arsenal through acquisitions like the US’s Sig Sauer rifles and French Rafale fighter jets for India’s aircraft carriers. Moreover, India has redoubled its efforts in indigenous arms production, achieving noteworthy successes with domestically developed systems such as the Dhanush artillery gun, Tejas light combat aircraft, and Akash surface-to-air missile.
While these efforts reduce India's dependence on any single supplier, it is unlikely that a decoupling from Russia is on the cards. Russian weaponry offers a cost advantage over Western counterparts, coupled with performance that aligns with India's operational needs. Furthermore, Russia distinguishes itself by its willingness to transfer strategic technologies and engage in joint development and production ventures, including establishing manufacturing facilities within India. In essence, while India actively seeks to diversify its defence procurement channels and bolster its indigenous capabilities, a complete departure from its defence ties with Russia remains unlikely.
With India's elections around the corner, there is strong possibility of continuity in leadership, and in all likelihood, a continued camaraderie and cordial relations between the two nations. In the future as well, India is expected to avoid direct criticism of Russian actions, opting instead to prioritise the strengthening of economic and military bonds with Moscow. However, some disruptions are anticipated either due to the Kremlin's dependence on China, or the unpredictable outcomes of the conflict. Any shifts in positions need careful consideration, as this may force Russia to recalibrate priorities and engagements, potentially impacting its dynamics with India.
Top Stories of the Week
India Boosts Maritime Partnership with Philippines Amidst Flare-ups in South China Sea
During a recent visit to Manila, India's External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar, reiterated India's firm support for the Philippines in upholding its national sovereignty amidst escalating tensions in the South China Sea. This support comes at a critical juncture as China continues to assert its claims over vast areas of the region, disregarding international law, despite a 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration against its claims. Jaishankar's visit coincided with the arrival of the Indian Coast Guard ship Samudra Paheredar in Manila Bay. This underscores India's commitment to bolstering maritime cooperation with the Philippines, demonstrating its capabilities. Additionally, India's decision to export BrahMos missiles to the Philippines signifies a deepening defense partnership, with Manila viewing India's defense industries as pivotal in its armed forces' modernization efforts.
Both countries have pledged to accelerate maritime cooperation, focusing on areas such as marine domain awareness, shipping, search and rescue, law enforcement, and environmental protection. However, China swiftly rebuffed external involvement in South China Sea disputes, emphasizing that such matters should be resolved solely between the concerned parties. Despite China's stance, Jaishankar emphasized India's growing ties with the Philippines across various sectors, including trade, investment, health, education, and defense. Bilateral trade has surpassed $3 billion, and India aims to further enhance its engagement with the Philippines, given its status as the fifth-largest economy. Moreover, both nations discussed measures to ensure the safety of Indian and Filipino seafarers, amidst security challenges in the Red Sea, with India's Navy demonstrating prompt response capabilities in assisting distressed vessels.
PM Modi’s Visit to Bhutan Ushers In a New Era for India-Bhutan Ties
PM Modi arrived in Paro, Bhutan, last week, for his third official State visit. He was conferred with the highest civilian award in Bhutan, the order of the Druk Gyalpo by the King of Bhutan. This visit comes in quick succession to an extensive bilateral summit with the newly elected Bhutanese PM Tsering Tobgay earlier from March 13 to 17.
The increasing frequency of engagement with one of India’s closest allies can be perceived as a primary example of India’s neighborhood first foreign policy. During his visit, PM Modi also announced an increased stimulus of Rs. 10,000 crore for Bhutan’s Five Year Plans, alongside which several MoUs for transport, energy, space and agriculture were signed. Most notably, the rail link to the planned Geluphu Mindfulness City, a special administrative zone, of which India has been a major proponent.
The visit comes in the backdrop of the release of Model Code of Conduct in India and the burgeoning economic and demographic challenges being faced by Bhutan. With youth unemployment at 28%, and the country witnessing a mass exodus of the workforce, Bhutan’s need for reliable neighborhood partners is only set to increase. India has repeatedly expressed its support and interest in furthering infrastructural development and collaboration with Bhutan. Analysts claim that the increased spirit of collaboration is also in major part due to India’s concerns of national security, Bhutan’s recent overtures towards China, and its geographical proximity with the country. As Beijing continues to assert its hegemony with hard power tactics over India through Bhutan, the Indo-Bhutanese relationship must become stronger than ever, while taking India’s security and strategic interests into consideration.
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