The Aakhya Weekly #99 | Global Ambitions: How Foreign Policy Shapes India's 2024 Election Narrative

May 31, 2024

[Part of the Election Series by Aakhya Weekly]

By Sasanka Kanuparthi

Ministry of External Affairs, South Block, New Delhi.

It is not unusual for political parties to focus on foreign policy issues to advance their respective discourses during Indian elections. However, its breadth, scope, and significance have only grown in recent years, attributed largely to the changing face of diplomacy, the role of social media, and the public’s interest in India’s growing global stature. India’s mammoth General Elections will conclude tomorrow, with the 7th and final phase of the 2024 polls taking place on June 1st. Shortly after, on June 4th, election results will indicate the direction in which the political winds shall blow.

Compared to the 2014 and 2019 General Elections, the 2024 elections stand out in terms of the political capital invested in India’s positions and policy choices beyond its borders. It is evident from the media blitzkrieg that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) worked meticulously to set the narrative on India’s achievements in the run-up to the polls. However, the BJP’s claims of its government’s foreign policy successes in the last 10 years were significantly contested by several voices in the opposition on numerous occasions. Their attempts were arguably futile, given that their narratives were often dispersed, seen as opinions of individuals within the opposition, or faced an overwhelming response from commentators on social media, thus helping shape popular opinion in the BJP’s favour. Moreover, the visible penetration of India’s G20 in tier 2 and 3 cities, India’s response to geopolitical crises, and the public retorts by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar at global forums, continue to go viral, naturally piquing the interest of the Indian public.

This indicates the public’s overwhelming support for India’s actions in recent years, even though some of the statements in recent weeks could be attributed to election season rhetoric. Being at the helm of affairs does afford the BJP some advantages, which were aided further by an opposition that under-delivered on offering an alternate vision for India’s foreign policy.

Manifesto Comparatives

The differences in the approach between the BJP’s and the Indian National Congress’s (INC) manifestos could not have been more stark. Literally titled ‘Modi ki Guarantee’ (Modi’s Guarantee), the BJP’s manifesto lists the party’s numerous achievements across various verticals, including national security and external affairs, followed by its commitments for the next five years on how India shall assume global leadership under their administration. In contrast, the INC’s foreign policy priorities focus mostly on the neighbourhood, reinstating continuity in policies shaped from Nehruvian times, and accusations of some policy departures by the BJP. This is in reference to the Gaza conflict, as the INC suggests a reversal of existing policies. In addition, there are other insignificant mentions on enhancing foreign trade, strategic autonomy, multilateral institutions, and collaboration with countries of the Global South. Broadly, the INC’s outlook as per its manifesto seems retrospective, either providing a critique of the BJP’s policies or reminiscing about the international arena during Congress years.

Its striking dissimilarity with the BJP’s vision shows how the INC’s views on foreign policy fall way short of projecting a forward-looking agenda. For instance, the BJP alludes to its record in the last ten years and makes various promises about the concrete actions it intends to take in the future. In line with its communication in recent years, it talks about the successful evacuation of Indian citizens from conflict zones such as Yemen, Ukraine, Israel, and during the COVID-19 pandemic, providing COVID-19 vaccines to the world, inclusion of the African Union in the G20 under India’s presidency, promotion of the International Day of Yoga, Digital India Stack, among others. Claiming that it has been a first responder for Global South countries, the BJP manifesto speaks of India assuming leadership in this domain. More importantly, it goes into great detail listing out some of the goals the BJP intends to achieve if it comes back to power. There seems to be considerable emphasis on soft power approaches, i.e., in bringing back Indian artefacts taken illegally from the country, further solidifying links with the Indian diaspora for India’s growth, establishing Thiruvalluvar Cultural Centres to promote various facets of our languages, traditions, and culture, building technology partnerships, and sharing Digital Public Infrastructure for public service delivery. While the list is exhaustive, it does indicate the nuances of the BJP’s intent vis-a-vis India’s global leadership. Even among the opposition, foreign policy is one of the verticals often considered a BJP strong suit, given the ease with which nationalistic fervour could be generated in an aspirational India.

Election-cycle Rhetoric & its Background

In the run-up to the polls, Indians’ social media feeds were bombarded with ads and campaigns outlining many achievements, including one which depicts an Indian student returning home from the conflict in Ukraine on account of Prime Minister Modi’s intervention. Similarly, a slew of recent media engagements by External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar, focus on the opinions on the street, where he suggests that people across the country expect an assertive India that prioritises its national interests over global pressure tactics which expect an India that takes sides in various conflicts. There is then the narrative around guarding India’s national security by taking out individuals linked to terror groups by covert means. While most of these claims are popularised by the BJP’s support base online, the ones that went beyond Pakistan, i.e., especially the U.S. and Canada, received considerable flak. Contrary to the expectations of western critics of the alleged Indian involvement in covert killings and assassination plots, the hit pieces on the issue ended up helping the BJP. The genesis of the online popularity of India’s covert tactics lies in the postures made by the BJP dispensation and the PM before the 2019 elections, where he had professed the government's intent at retaliation, if India’s national security is under threat.

On the other hand, in one of the sit-down interviews a few days ago, PM Modi provided a glimpse of what India’s foreign policy priorities look like under his governance. He suggested that Indian missions under his direction are looking at exports, inbound tourism, and generation of international interest in technology transfers and partnerships with India. Once again, the opposition is completely absent in terms of building any narratives on its foreign policy vision, given how senior leaders from the Congress could be found making faux pas statements on Pakistan and China, especially when the BJP is seen favourably for its international achievements. Moreover, the Congress party’s criticism as early as August 2023, of the Government’s skirmishes with China in Galwan, seems not to have found traction among the average Indian voter. Despite Rahul Gandhi’s claims that India had lost territory to China under the Modi government, there are very few takers, as evidenced by the immense popularity enjoyed by PM Modi in the minds of the Indian public.

The Next 5 Years

Morning Consult, an American business intelligence company that works extensively on various forms of data analysis, conducted a survey called Global Leader Approval Rating Tracker as recently as May 1-7, 2024, which gives PM Modi an approval rating of 74%, the highest for any leader of a major country. It showcases the perception, trust, and leadership choices of the Indian electorate. An August 2023 Pew Research Survey on Indian perceptions of its leaders and India's place in the world shows that an overwhelming majority, i.e., 68% of the respondents feel that India is growing in influence across the world. Similarly, PM Modi was viewed most favourably compared to other leaders who were considered as having some chances of making their mark in the 2024 elections. Going by the BJP’s rhetoric, it is clear that it is attempting to tie the country’s growing stature with the people’s aspirations, as reflected in the years of posturing.

Even global political pundits are of the opinion that the NDA is likely to come back to power for the third time in a row. In fact, PM Modi was even invited by Italian PM Meloni to attend the G7 Summit in June, an indication of where the odds are. However, in the advent of a black swan event that might bring the INDI alliance to victory after the 2024 polls, foreign policy could be a major casualty despite the broad bipartisan trajectory of Indian foreign policy over recent decades. Given the lack of conversation and debate over policy priorities among the opposition coalition partners, it is hard to predict how the next five years of diplomacy will look. Nonetheless, within a week’s time, the election results will decide how India’s global ambitions are destined to take shape.

Top Stories of the Week

Phase 6 Elections: Voter Turnout Spectrum

The sixth phase of the Lok Sabha elections, held on May 25th, saw a voter turnout of 63.37%. During this phase, elections took place in 58 constituencies spanning eight states and union territories: Bihar, Haryana, the NCT of Delhi, Jharkhand, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Jammu & Kashmir.

With respect to the breakdown of voter turnout, male voter turnout stood at 61.95%, while the female turnout at 64.95%, and third-gender turnout at 18.67%. Among these regions, West Bengal emerged as the state with the highest turnout exceeding 80%, up from 79.5% in 2019. Odisha followed with a 74.45% turnout, and Jharkhand took the third position with 65.39%. Uttar Pradesh reported the lowest turnout at 54%. The NCT of Delhi also experienced a dip, with a turnout of 58.7%, down from 60.6% in the last election.

This phase recorded a higher turnout than the fifth phase, which stood at 62.2%, but it fell short of the numbers recorded in the first four phases. In five out of the six phases, including the sixth, voter turnout has been lower than in 2019.

Amidst the general decline in turnout, there was a silver lining in Jammu andKashmir. The region recorded its highest voter turnout in a Lok Sabha election in the past 35 years, with the Kashmir Valley showing a remarkable 30-point increase in participation compared to 2019. Srinagar, Baramulla, and Anantnag-Rajouri constituencies recorded turnouts of 38.49%, 59.1%, and 54.84%, respectively,—the highest in three decades. Udhampur and Jammu constituencies also reported impressive turnouts of 68.27% and 72.22%, respectively. This surge in participation was a heartening sign of the democratic process's robustness, given that it is the first general election after the revocation of Article 370 in 2019.

Streamlined Licencing and Eco-Friendly Focus

The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways is set to revamp the driver licencing system in India. Effective June 1st, 2024. The changes aim to simplify the process, enhance efficiency, prioritize safety and reduce vehicular pollution.

This citizen-centric approach includes online applications, which eliminates the hassle of physical submissions. Additionally, the option to take driving tests at authorized private institutions offers greater flexibility, which could further reduce waiting times at the Regional Transport Offices (RTOs).

The new rules also address a crucial safety concern – driving without a license with fines now reaching up to ₹2,000. For minors caught driving, the penalties are more severe, including a ₹25,000 fine and potential action against the parents, as well as the cancellation of the vehicle’s registration certificate. These escalating penalties aim to deter both unlicenced driving and the irresponsible actions of parents who allow minors in the absence of requisite documents.

However, the reforms extend beyond mere licencing. The Ministry's commitment to phasing out 9000 outdated government vehicles and raising emission standards reflects a broader environmental focus. By promoting electric vehicles (EVs), these measures also aim to combat air pollution, which remains a significant public health concern.

A Few Good Reads

Tanushree Goyal writes about the rise of ordinary women in political parties, the unsung actors who now play a crucial role in shaping political landscapes
C Raja Mohan writes that the next government must order a comprehensive review of changing global nuclear dynamic and regional atomic challenges.
Suchitra Karthikeyan explains Palestine’s quest for statehood and India’s stance on its recognition
Vivek Kaul decodes the rise of quick commerce and its relationship with the India’s rising economy
Amit Kapoor argues on what India must do to safeguard itself from trade imbalances in Free Trade Agreements.

The Aakhya Weekly