The Aakhya Weekly Election Special | TRUMP RETURNS!
US Presidential Election 2024: What can India Expect from Donald Trump’s Comeback Term?
By Aakhya India Policy Team
Source: FMT
Former President Donald Trump has been declared the winner of the 2024 presidential elections in the US, with results indicating the Republican party winning the popular vote, crossing the majority in the Senate, and the House of Representatives. While key states such as Nevada and Arizona are yet to be called, President Trump has been declared the winner having achieved 295 electoral college votes, way past the halfway mark of 270, compared to Vice President Kamala Harris’s 226 electoral college votes. As he prepares to set foot in the White House for another term, global attention turns to the anticipated shift in Western policy under the Republicans' Realist agenda. In this light, India-U.S. relations and the impact of the Indian diaspora have emerged as focal points for Trump’s campaign. Numerous social media posts, interviews, and articles spotlight the close relationship between President Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, often described by analysts as warm and cordial, with memorable events like "Namaste Trump" and "Howdy, Modi" serving as highlights of their partnership. Aakhya Weekly’s special edition following the 2024 U.S. Election Results explores key areas where India and the U.S. might see a renewed partnership, highlighting the potential benefits and challenges for India.
Source: CNN
Trade Tariffs
Trump's campaign this term has placed a strong focus on establishing a level playing field in trade tariffs, both bilaterally and multilaterally. The U.S. is India's largest trading partner, and the annual bilateral trade is worth $190 billion. Between FY20 and FY24, India's merchandise exports to the U.S. grew by 46%, rising from $53.1 billion to $77.5 billion. Imports from the U.S. also increased, from $35.8 billion to $42.2 billion, marking a 17.9% rise. Much of this progress occurred during the last few years when the approach to trade was relatively balanced. However, President Trump’s paradigm-shifting economic strategy, which focuses on raising tariffs and cutting national taxes, could pose risks to several industries, including IT, pharmaceuticals, and textiles.
India - US Bilateral Relationships
During Trump's first term as U.S. President, India became a crucial strategic ally for the U.S. in countering China's growing influence and assertive geopolitical posturing. Trump withdrew from several multilateral forums, such as the UNFCCC and TTP, prioritizing bilateral and quadrilateral partnerships in Asia, particularly strengthening ties with India and advancing the QUAD initiative. In this context, many key issues of concern for India, including terrorism emanating from Pakistan, Chinese aggression, and India's bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, received strong backing from the U.S. In his second term, we could expect continuity in Trump’s approach, i.e. in the US’s collaboration with India, including deliberations about the recent diplomatic row with Canada and the political turmoil in Bangladesh. Recent statements by Donald Trump on the violence against minorities in Bangladesh, including Hindus, suggest a convergence of views, given how India alluded to similar talking points following former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s ouster.
A Renewed Thrust to QUAD
QUAD will also see a renewed engagement for the US in South Asia along with I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE and the US) as a hedge for it to counter the growing Chinese influence in Asia. The 2+2 Ministerial dialogue between India and the US, which started during the Trump administration, will be the driver and pivot for an array of topics to be discussed bilaterally such as defence, visas, trade and economics.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
President Trump ran his election campaign by promising the electorate that he would end wars, alluding broadly to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other conflicts in the Middle East. Given India’s position that dialogue and diplomatic efforts must be accelerated to find solutions, it would be an opportune moment for the Modi Government to discuss options with the President-Elect in the coming weeks. While President Trump is unlikely to follow through with swift decisions to end the US’s support for Ukraine, he might approach it pragmatically with piecemeal manoeuvres. It would be the perfect timeline for MEA strategists to lay the groundwork to discuss options, given that feelers from Russia about a strategic reset are doing the rounds after the declaration of the election results. Moroever, India’s arguments in its discussions with Trump should centre around the plausible benefits of stabilising global trade and security, and how they could address his electorate’s demands. Given India’s familiarity and comfort with Russia, Ukraine, and the US, the Modi Government must deftly position itself as a willing partner in facilitating the negotiations that could potentially lead to a cessation of the conflict.